Recent years were characterized by gradual recovery of macroeconomic situation in Poland, which is the 9th largest European country with over 38.5 million population and more than 312.000 km2 of area. It is proven by aggregate indicators analysis, which reflects general economic situation. The most commonly used indicators are as follow:
-dynamics of Gross Domestic Product (GDP),
-Foreign Direct Investment (FDI),
After significant economic boost in 2010, 2011-2012 brought another deterioration of macroeconomic situation in majority of the European Union countries. The attempts to invigorate economies made by central banks seemed to underperform, and dynamics of General Domestic Product (GDP), seemed to take downward tendency in many countries. Value of this indicator for Euro Zone has declined below zero. However, 2014 brought return of economic growth and thus, reversed the recession.
During that time, Polish economy remained stable, maintaining relatively high growth rate. Although in 2014 dynamics of GDP weakened slightly, it outstripped the greatest European economies, developing faster than EU economies as a whole. In 2004-2010, Poland’s economic growth reached 30%, while in EU-27 economies, it was only 6% (EU-15 – 5%). In remaining member countries from Central and Eastern Europe, the growth rate in 2004-2010 was as follows: Bulgaria 21%, Czech Republic 21%, Romania 18%, Lithuania 14%, Slovenia 14%, Estonia 9%, Latvia 7% and Hungary 3%. Such development of economic growth, was mainly an outcome of high external demand. In the previous year, situation in this field has positively changed and currently, added value growth is the main factor influencing national demand in Poland.
At the end of 2015, dynamics of Gross Domestic Product were stable and amounted to 3.9%, in contrast to Great Britain’s results, where we could observe decrease by 0.7%, or Germany, whose growth declined significantly. It is worth noticing that it resulted in stabilizing the economic growth rate of Poland in relatively narrow range 3.2-3.9% YOY. As the data of the Central Statistical Office indicates, national demand, which increased in third quarter by 3.1% YOY, was the most crucial for economic growth. Additionally, it should be stressed out that the expenditure on overall consumption, whose dynamics increased by 2.7% YOY, was a major factor. In the third quarter of 2015, the export growth rate exceeded the import growth rate, increasing respectively by 6.5% YOY and 6.0% YOY. Therefore, it is clearly visible that the trade balance of Poland comparing to foreign countries, has undergone a significant improvement. Recent years have also seen decrease in unemployment rate in Poland to nearly 7.0%. It has to be noted that influence on this rate was caused mainly by general improvement of economic situation in the country.
CPI inflation that indicated the pace of goods’ and consumption services price growth, has maintained decreasing trend for several years, however, at the end of the previous year, we noted an increase – thus amounting to 0.2% YOY. It is worth stressing that inflation level amounting to 1.0% that was noted in 2014 was the lowest value within the last 20 years. Nonetheless, the forecasts of the experts indicate that the incoming quarters would be characterized by quick return to price hike.
The current relatively quick pace of economic growth and the newest forecast suggests that in upcoming quarters the macroeconomic situation in Poland should become much better. According to available estimations, the GDP dynamics for the whole 2016 should maintain on level of 4.2% YOY. It will be significantly dependent on improvement of economic situation on international arena, especially in the greatest importer of Polish goods - Germany. Still, the construction and industrial sector are the key elements responsible for GDP growth. Following that, it is predicted that 2016 would be characterized by the continuous economic growth in Poland. Foreign investors seem to notice high potential of Poland, as the economy still shows positive capital flow derived from Foreign Direct Investments. In 2014, the flowing capital amounted EUR 9.1 bn and was 4-times higher than the year before. According to research of FDI Intelligence, in January 2003 – August 2014, 3379 greenfield investment projects were realized in Poland and 822 of new workplaces were created.
The above mentioned phenomenon is fostered by decisions of Monetary Policy Council, which since 2011 has been gradually decreasing value of money in Poland by lowering the reference level of interest rate from 4.5% in 2011 to only 1.5%. The lower the credit interest rate - the more attractive the terms of obtaining external financing for the planned investments. This, in turn, encourages to make decisions on allocating investment projects in Poland. The improving situation will surely encourage the demand for new investment in immediate future. In addition, according to World Bank’s ranking – “Doing Business 2015”, Poland was placed 32nd out of 189 economies from around the world. The high position in this ranking supports the claim that the legal and regulatory environment also facilitates investment processes in this country.
Although Polish economy is still undergoing a dynamic development, only some of the branches are characterized by comparably high growth rate. They offer more attractive investment opportunities, therefore the proposed investment scope of the Fund is focused on specified areas, in which engaging financial resources may bring benefits for all projects’ participants.